MUP week 9 : Logical thinking

Fermi estimation

Let's think about the monthly proceeds of your favorite restaurant.

Are you able to lead to an answer?

Your answer would be "NO". No one would knows the actual answer.

In week9's lesson, Takaki Takehana teaches us how important Fermi estimation is in business. A Fermi estimate is one done using back-of-the-envelope calculations and rough generalizations to estimate values which would require extensive analysis or experimentation to determine exactly. *1

Thus we do not have to lead to the right answer of monthly proceeds but we need to be ready for based on logical thinking.

Copernican theory

It is always possible that people overestimate his/her value like "I am doing right way".

That also happens in business scene. You might believe that your business would be successful. However he tells us that "My view is never right. Facts based on solid data are important".

人は物事をドラマチック化してしまう To prove and pursue the customer perspective logically

Unnecessary Two thoughts

He also mentions about there are thoughts that we have to eliminate if you want be success in business.

1.Division instinct

2.Negative instinct

For example, when you want to open your restaurant, you might focus on the "Location" and

conclude that crowded street is good but less crowded street is bad. This Division instinct which is the though of judging something extremely Yes or No.

This world cannot be simply divided into just white and black. Therefore have a afford to think about the gradation parts.

You need to make a logical judgment without being overwhelmed by emotions

refer

*1 https://brilliant.org/wiki/fermi-estimate/